3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,498 sqft ·
Built 1959
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 166 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,974/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$206
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$415
Net cashflow
$305/mo
Annual
$3,657/yr
Cap rate
8.52%
Cash-on-cash
7.96%
DSCR
1.35
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$55,986
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.3% below list).
It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#72 in VA, #2,276 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
Botetourt County Public School District (rural): math 76% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #6 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 116 units permitted in Botetourt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Botetourt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.6% in Daleville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TPG30ZF0GADWAH
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29