4012 Shady Hollow Ln

Dallas, TX 75233

$295,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,148 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,457/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$880
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-487/mo
• Annual: $-5,838/yr
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.07%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-487 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Daniel Webster El (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 326 students, 93% FRL); T W Browne Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 478 students, 96% FRL); Justin F Kimball H S (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,424 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 1,192 students, 81% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dallas ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.