199 Shadow Rd

Pollock, LA 71407

$182,500F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,175/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$957
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-213/mo
• Annual: $-2,556/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $51,100

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $182k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (35.6% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#202 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Grant Parish (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #43 of 98 in LA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pollock Elementary School (math 29% / reading 36%, grade F, #300 of 646 statewide, top 47%, 510 students, 72% FRL); Grant Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #108 of 218 statewide, top 50%, 504 students, 73% FRL); Grant High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #45 of 265 statewide, top 20%, 658 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Grant Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grant County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $182k implies a 1117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.