8791 Short Tract Rd

Nunda, NY 14517

$39,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $444/mo
• Annual: $5,326/yr
• Cap rate: 19.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.77%
• DSCR: 3.17
• 1% rule: 2.59%
• Cash to close: $10,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#745 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dalton-Nunda Central School District (Keshequa) (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #515 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Livingston County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.