307 Royal Fern Ln

Statesboro, GA 30461

$364,990F

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,618 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,280
• Tax + insurance: −$725
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-1,510/mo
• Annual: $-18,116/yr
• Cap rate: 2.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.88%
• DSCR: 0.34
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $121,731

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (40.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (46.1% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (46.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#151 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Bulloch County (rural): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #85 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 668 units permitted in Bulloch County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bulloch County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 3.6% in Statesboro — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.