5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,129 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,312/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,363
Tax + insurance
−$228
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$486
Net cashflow
$235/mo
Annual
$2,819/yr
Cap rate
7.38%
Cash-on-cash
3.87%
DSCR
1.17
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$72,797
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $260k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (11.1% below list).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $231k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TSKYQB0X2H9XVD
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29