4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,000 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 127 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,708/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,415
Tax + insurance
−$450
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$779
Net cashflow
$1,064/mo
Annual
$12,774/yr
Cap rate
11.03%
Cash-on-cash
16.90%
DSCR
1.75
1% rule
1.37%
Cash to close
$75,572
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $270k).
It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Exterior siding
— Severe weathering and staining
Major: Landscaping
— Overgrown and unkempt
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29