2414 Circle Dr

Hazel Crest, IL 60429

$154,000C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 871 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,471/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $888/mo
• Annual: $10,656/yr
• Cap rate: 13.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.71%
• DSCR: 2.10
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $154k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $888 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#229 in IL, #4,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Bremen Chsd 228 (suburban): math 15% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #468 of 620 in IL (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest High School (math 4% / reading 4%, grade F, #657 of 693 statewide, top 95%, 1,314 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 4% at this address vs 16% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bremen Chsd 228 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $154k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 9.0% in Hazel Crest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.