1502 Culpepper Ave

Wilson, TX 79381

$205,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,789 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,626/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$675
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $324/mo
• Annual: $3,891/yr
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $205k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,132 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Wilson ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,024 of 1,141 in TX (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.