1428 Timber Chase Dr

Enola, PA 17050

$239,900F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1997 · Townhouse · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,873/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$180
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-238/mo
• Annual: $-2,859/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.26%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (21.9% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $187k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#243 in PA, #2,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hampden El Sch (math 65% / reading 75%, grade A-, #147 of 1,518 statewide, top 10%, 530 students, 27% FRL); Mountain View Ms (math 46% / reading 70%, grade B, #59 of 512 statewide, top 12%, 1,378 students, 26% FRL); Cumberland Valley Hs (math 66% / reading 24%, grade D-, #191 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 3,035 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $186k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Enola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.