Shepherd Plan

Leland, NC 28451

$320,500F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,081 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,358/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,831
• Tax + insurance: −$1,218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-3,187/mo
• Annual: $-38,240/yr
• Cap rate: 1.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.69%
• DSCR: 0.17
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $204,573

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-38k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#177 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 44% / reading 37%, grade F, #682 of 1,410 statewide, top 49%, 675 students, 100% FRL); Leland Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 780 students, 100% FRL); North Brunswick High (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,450 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 2008 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 3.2% in Leland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.