110 S Ellsworth Rd

Mesa, AZ 85208

$175,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,726/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $328/mo
• Annual: $3,941/yr
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (1.4% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $173k (1.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Patterson Elementary School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B, #132 of 1,109 statewide, top 12%, 567 students, 29% FRL); Greenfield Junior High School (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #19 of 218 statewide, top 8%, 1,204 students, 20% FRL); Highland High School (math 46% / reading 43%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 3,174 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $175k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.