1209 Ledgestone Cir

Branson, MO 65737

$594,900D+

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,102 sqft · Built 2000 · Other · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$135
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,029
• Net cashflow: $169/mo
• Annual: $2,029/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $166,572

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $595k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $490k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $490k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.5% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.