1486 Willow Bnd

Woodstock, GA 30188

$489,900B-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,884 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,496/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,569
• Tax + insurance: −$598
• HOA: −$82
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,154
• Net cashflow: $1,093/mo
• Annual: $13,113/yr
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $137,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $490k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $490k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $461k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#46 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cherokee County (suburban): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #17 of 174 in GA (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arnold Mill Elementary School (math 63% / reading 50%, grade C+, #159 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 810 students, 22% FRL); Mill Creek Middle School (math 47% / reading 55%, grade C, #64 of 470 statewide, top 14%, 1,333 students, 25% FRL); River Ridge High School (math 18% / reading 46%, grade F, #110 of 424 statewide, top 28%, 1,914 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 626 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,665 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (852 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cherokee County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $137k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.3% in Woodstock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,496/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 1591% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.