4646 S Grand Blvd

St. Louis, MO 63111

$69,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,160/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $440/mo
• Annual: $5,280/yr
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.97%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodward Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 239 students, 99% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.