3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,512 sqft ·
Built 1995
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 270 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,203/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$561
Tax + insurance
−$194
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$463
Net cashflow
$985/mo
Annual
$11,816/yr
Cap rate
18.08%
Cash-on-cash
42.10%
DSCR
2.87
1% rule
2.06%
Cash to close
$29,960
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $107k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $985 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#52 in OR, #1,587 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, crime D-.
Bethel SD 52 (urban): math 18% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #52 of 58 in OR (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Shasta Middle School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #108 of 128 statewide, top 89%, 392 students, 66% FRL); Willamette High School (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #85 of 143 statewide, top 61%, 1,516 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $34k; list at $107k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 2.8% in Eugene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TVSD430ZPVZY8A
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29