3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,850 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,053/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$519
Tax + insurance
−$291
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$431
Net cashflow
$812/mo
Annual
$9,742/yr
Cap rate
16.13%
Cash-on-cash
35.14%
DSCR
2.56
1% rule
2.07%
Cash to close
$27,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $46k; list at $99k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TWGSKS17XB9DRM
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29