4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,933 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,762/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,349
Tax + insurance
−$747
HOA
−$423
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$790
Net cashflow
$-547/mo
Annual
$-6,559/yr
Cap rate
4.83%
Cash-on-cash
-5.23%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$125,425
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $448k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-547 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (17.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (16.0% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $369k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At $3,762/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TX30Y7EX09K7RJ
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29