5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,156 sqft ·
Built 2000
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,179/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,045
Tax + insurance
−$525
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$668
Net cashflow
$-58/mo
Annual
$-698/yr
Cap rate
6.11%
Cash-on-cash
-0.64%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$109,172
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-698/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (2.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (18.5% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $318k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Susitna Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 156 statewide, top 70%, 368 students, 56% FRL); Nicholas J. Begich Middle School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #32 of 36 statewide, top 89%, 882 students, 78% FRL); Bartlett High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 1,373 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TX6VK44S9AZ6HC
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29