2425 Juanita Dr

Denison, TX 75020

$134,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,532/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$421
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $82/mo
• Annual: $978/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.59%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($978/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 485 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.