63615 Centennial Rd

Bunker Hill, OR 97420

$289,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-307/mo
• Annual: $-3,684/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.55%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (35.7% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $186k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#171 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Coos Bay SD 9 (town): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 58 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside School (315 students, 50% FRL); Marshfield Junior High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #61 of 128 statewide, top 54%, 436 students, 41% FRL); Marshfield Senior High School (math 17% / reading 54%, grade F, #89 of 143 statewide, top 62%, 835 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Bunker Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.