12918 Magnolia Square Dr

Central, LA 70818

$414,990F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,337 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$692
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-1,096/mo
• Annual: $-13,157/yr
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.32%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $116,197

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (44.2% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#25 in LA, #4,761 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Central Community School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #9 of 98 in LA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Middle School (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #37 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 1,163 students, 53% FRL); Central High School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #40 of 265 statewide, top 15%, 1,587 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.0% in Central — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.