1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
693 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Condo
· Active
· 58 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$848/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$325
Tax + insurance
−$209
HOA
−$262
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$178
Net cashflow
$-126/mo
Annual
$-1,512/yr
Cap rate
5.14%
Cash-on-cash
-4.12%
DSCR
0.82
1% rule
1.37%
Cash to close
$17,357
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $62k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $40k (35.9% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($848 rent vs $62k).
It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $40k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $428 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $453 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Piney Point El (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 1,202 students, 96% FRL); Revere Middle (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 1,112 students, 93% FRL); Wisdom H S (math 17% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,260 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 31% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.6%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
15 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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