5338 Tigers Tail

Leesburg, FL 34748

$230,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$165
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-410/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-410/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (4.4% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.5% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,198/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1745% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?