3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,448 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,227/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,623
Tax + insurance
−$516
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$678
Net cashflow
$411/mo
Annual
$4,937/yr
Cap rate
7.89%
Cash-on-cash
5.70%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$86,632
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $309k).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $300k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TZZ1ES9Z8F4FMP
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29