Apex (Riverbend) Plan

Thruston, KY 42303

$89,995C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 323 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,567/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $216/mo
• Annual: $2,596/yr
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $25,199

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Daviess County (suburban): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #43 of 165 in KY (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East View Elementary School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #431 of 676 statewide, top 64%, 462 students, 68% FRL); Daviess County Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #32 of 217 statewide, top 15%, 813 students, 55% FRL); Daviess County High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #37 of 254 statewide, top 15%, 1,740 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; 226 units permitted in Daviess County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Daviess County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.4% in Thruston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.