3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,060 sqft ·
Built 1956
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,623/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$281
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$341
Net cashflow
$268/mo
Annual
$3,214/yr
Cap rate
8.59%
Cash-on-cash
8.20%
DSCR
1.37
1% rule
1.16%
Cash to close
$39,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in MI, #578 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
Midland Public Schools (urban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #62 of 540 in MI (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Plymouth Elementary School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C, #320 of 1,397 statewide, top 23%, 439 students, 51% FRL); Northeast Middle School (math 39% / reading 62%, grade C, #110 of 493 statewide, top 23%, 856 students, 50% FRL); Midland High School (math 42% / reading 64%, grade C-, #127 of 713 statewide, top 18%, 1,156 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 25% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 98 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 320 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).
Midland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.4% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29