3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,046 sqft ·
Built 1966
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 132 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,070/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$414
Tax + insurance
−$221
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$225
Net cashflow
$210/mo
Annual
$2,516/yr
Cap rate
9.48%
Cash-on-cash
11.38%
DSCR
1.51
1% rule
1.35%
Cash to close
$22,120
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#354 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
Beeville ISD (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #638 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 15 units permitted in Bee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bee County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.4% in Beeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29