912 S Ky 3438

Barbourville, KY 40923

$89,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,158 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $168/mo
• Annual: $2,016/yr
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.01%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($999 rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#284 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Knox County (town): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #116 of 165 in KY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Girdler Elementary School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #434 of 676 statewide, top 69%, 294 students, 86% FRL); Knox County Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #151 of 217 statewide, top 71%, 429 students, 81% FRL); Knox Central High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #213 of 254 statewide, top 86%, 761 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.
• Knox County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.1% in Barbourville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.