407 S Herman St

Mexia, TX 76667

$74,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,314/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $473/mo
• Annual: $5,680/yr
• Cap rate: 13.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.41%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.78%
• Cash to close: $20,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#458 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mexia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #696 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: A B Mcbay El (527 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 69% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.6% in Mexia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.