18625 Ny State Route 177

Adams Center, NY 13606

$219,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,899 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$369
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-388/mo
• Annual: $-4,654/yr
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.59%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#692 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• South Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #420 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maynard P Wilson Elementary School (math 31% / reading 56%, grade F, #1,350 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 520 students, 37% FRL); Clarke Middle School (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 435 students, 41% FRL); South Jefferson High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 553 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $219k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.