7220 E Mary Sharon Dr #111

Scottsdale, AZ 85266

$479,900D-

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,030/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$341
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$846
• Net cashflow: $10/mo
• Annual: $122/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $134,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $480k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($122/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (16.0% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($451k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $403k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($152k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.