9542 S 86th St

Lincoln, NE 68526

$425,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,143 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,603/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,624
• Tax + insurance: −$834
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-1,451/mo
• Annual: $-17,416/yr
• Cap rate: 2.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.43%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $140,083

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (38.8% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#5 in NE, #545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Lincoln Public Schools (urban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #59 of 111 in NE (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wysong Elementary (math 69% / reading 75%, grade A-, #27 of 502 statewide, top 7%, 697 students, 8% FRL); Moore Middle School (math 78% / reading 69%, grade A, #4 of 128 statewide, top 2%, 738 students, 10% FRL); Lincoln Southeast High School (math 51% / reading 52%, grade D+, #105 of 261 statewide, top 40%, 1,929 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools average 11% FRL vs 37% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lincoln Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.