419 Adams St

Marion, VA 24354

$145,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,237 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 352 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $996/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $-86/mo
• Annual: $-1,028/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 352 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#237 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute D-.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marion Elementary (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 307 students, 92% FRL); Marion Middle (math 44% / reading 64%, grade B-, #205 of 342 statewide, top 61%, 431 students, 96% FRL); Marion Senior High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 638 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 54% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 352 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.