6714 Colony Acres Dr

Affton, MO 63123

$444,900C-

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,328 sqft · Built 1965 · MultiFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,828/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,333
• Tax + insurance: −$569
• HOA: −$169
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,014
• Net cashflow: $743/mo
• Annual: $8,914/yr
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.16%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $124,572

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $743 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $186/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $445k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($438k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $438k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#121 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Affton 101 (suburban): math 21% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #258 of 324 in MO (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $445k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.9% in Affton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,828/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 753% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.