5534 Hill Rise Dr

Indianapolis city (balance), IN 46237

$214,100D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,016/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,123
• Tax + insurance: −$509
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-468/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $59,948

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-468/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (5.9% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Franklin Township Community School Corporation (urban): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #87 of 301 in IN (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arlington Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #434 of 994 statewide, top 48%, 484 students, 75% FRL); Franklin Central High School (math 41% / reading 69%, grade C, #77 of 369 statewide, top 21%, 3,319 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 29% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,906 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2.02M (90%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $214k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Indianapolis city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.