2506 Merganser Dr

Copperas Cove, TX 76522

$208,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,641/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-302/mo
• Annual: $-3,626/yr
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.23%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $58,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#706 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Copperas Cove ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #340 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 386 units permitted in Coryell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Copperas Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.