3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,197 sqft ·
Built 1974
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 110 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,045/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$991
Tax + insurance
−$199
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$429
Net cashflow
$425/mo
Annual
$5,104/yr
Cap rate
8.99%
Cash-on-cash
9.64%
DSCR
1.43
1% rule
1.08%
Cash to close
$52,921
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $172k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#13 in LA, #3,224 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Woodlake Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #18 of 646 statewide, top 3%, 548 students, 32% FRL); Mandeville Middle School (math 61% / reading 69%, grade A-, #8 of 218 statewide, top 3%, 538 students, 23% FRL); Lakeshore High School (math 42% / reading 61%, grade D+, #35 of 265 statewide, top 13%, 949 students, 34% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Tammany Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $143k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.4% in Mandeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-V4VHGGD6ZW9KHJ
· Data 17 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29