918 County Rd

Concho, AZ 85924

$132,600C

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 209 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $206/mo
• Annual: $2,475/yr
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.66%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $37,128

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (2.1% below list).
• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($917 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#419 in AZ) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Concho Elementary District (4160) (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #340 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 437 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Apache County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Apache County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.6% in Concho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.