30 New Lancaster Valley Rd

Siglerville, PA 17063

$119,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,065/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $407/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($407/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,713 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $120k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.