654 Artic Ave

Oak Grove, KY 42262

$145,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $77/mo
• Annual: $930/yr
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.28%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $40,852

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($930/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#445 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 83 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $146k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.5% in Oak Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.