5200 Carol Ave

Fort Worth, TX 76105

$199,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,894/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-471/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-471/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (4.8% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise - Mcmillan El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 325 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 23% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Worth ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 11613% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.