1116 Running Spgs #6

Walnut Creek, CA 94595

$339,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$565
• HOA: −$1,293
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $-918/mo
• Annual: $-11,017/yr
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.61%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-918 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (39.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $339k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#113 in CA, #4,005 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Acalanes Union High (suburban): math 73% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #21 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $79k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $290k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.1% in Walnut Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?