100 Lark Ln

Prescott, AZ 86303

$549,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,853 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,741/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$411
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$786
• Net cashflow: $-399/mo
• Annual: $-4,786/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $153,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-399 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $479k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $374k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $374k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#22 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, schools A-; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Prescott Unified District (4466) (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #70 of 249 in AZ (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 516 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $278k; list at $550k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.4% in Prescott — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,741/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 763% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.