The McGinnis Plan

Athens, AL 35613

$275,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 411 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,123/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax + insurance: −$491
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-361/mo
• Annual: $-4,330/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $82,558

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $276k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 411 days — a 12% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $212k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #4,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Limestone County (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 129 in AL (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Creekside Elementary School (math 42% / reading 66%, grade C, #96 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 560 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Limestone County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Athens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 411 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.