4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,920 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Townhouse
· Active
· 79 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,692/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,442
Tax + insurance
−$425
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$565
Net cashflow
$259/mo
Annual
$3,112/yr
Cap rate
7.42%
Cash-on-cash
4.04%
DSCR
1.18
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$77,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $275k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (2.1% below list).
It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#135 in PA, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A.
Upper Merion Area SD (suburban): math 49% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #71 of 539 in PA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bridgeport El Sch (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,049 of 1,518 statewide, top 71%, 266 students, 76% FRL); Upper Merion Ms (math 36% / reading 64%, grade C, #129 of 512 statewide, top 26%, 1,282 students, 47% FRL); Upper Merion Hs (math 75% / reading 24%, grade D+, #135 of 437 statewide, top 31%, 1,345 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 25% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Upper Merion Area SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
8 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $185k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.4% in Bridgeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-V7WMJZA0MMCS1N
· Data 20 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29