158 Oconee Rd

Commerce, GA 30120

$234,750D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,443 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,782/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,231
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-281/mo
• Annual: $-3,375/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $65,730

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (24.1% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Commerce City (town): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 174 in GA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Commerce Primary (486 students, 52% FRL); Commerce Middle School (math 44% / reading 51%, grade C-, #84 of 470 statewide, top 19%, 530 students, 56% FRL); Commerce High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #37 of 424 statewide, top 9%, 493 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.