3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,381 sqft ·
Built 1999
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,884/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$308
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$396
Net cashflow
$-52/mo
Annual
$-624/yr
Cap rate
6.03%
Cash-on-cash
-0.95%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$65,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-624/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (3.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (19.8% below list).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $188k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#447 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Newton County Theme School At Ficquett (math 49% / reading 65%, grade C+, #151 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 977 students, 29% FRL); Indian Creek Middle School (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 814 students, 85% FRL); Alcovy High School (math 3% / reading 12%, grade F, #378 of 424 statewide, top 91%, 1,991 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $92k; list at $235k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 5.0% in Porterdale — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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