3121 Middletown Rd Unit 8A

New York, NY 10461

$179,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Built 1963 · Condo · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,465/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$965
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-261/mo
• Annual: $-3,134/yr
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.22%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Ps 71 Rose E Scala (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 1,179 students, 75% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 31% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $125k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?