50 Canyon Blvd #b9-8 Unit B9-8

Mammoth Lakes, CA 93546

$24,000D+

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · Built 2006 · Timeshare · Active · 472 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,424/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$126
• Tax + insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$1,503
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $1,036/mo
• Annual: $12,435/yr
• Cap rate: 58.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 185.05%
• DSCR: 9.23
• 1% rule: 14.27%
• Cash to close: $6,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $24k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $24k).
• It's been on market 472 days — a 12% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $21k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $166 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $720 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#213 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, cost of living F.
• Mammoth Unified (town): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #549 of 1,400 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mammoth Elementary (529 students, 51% FRL); Mammoth Middle (229 students, 64% FRL); Mammoth High (math 27% / reading 72%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 351 students, 55% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 123 units permitted in Mono County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mono County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 58.1% vs local median 1.3% in Mammoth Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 472 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.